2026 is a very important pivotal year; this is a time when the Vietnam stock market not only has the opportunity for a breakthrough increase in terms of index points but is also entering a phase of comprehensive repositioning in terms of quality and capital flow structure, with a foundation stemming from macro stability, policy reforms, public investment, market upgrades, and the clear maturity of the listed enterprises themselves.

THE VIETNAM STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2026 STEMS FROM:

• FTSE Russell upgrading the Vietnam stock market and the path toward global financial integration. FTSE Russell will reclassify Vietnam from a Frontier market to a Secondary Emerging Market in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) and related indices, effective from the September 2026 semi-annual review, provided it passes the interim assessment in March 2026. Based on the assumption that all stocks within the FTSE Vietnam index will be included in the FTSE Emerging Markets index series, the estimated value of passive and active capital flows into the Vietnam market is expected to reach approximately 3-8 billion USD during the period after the upgrade decision takes effect.
• A new IPO wave in the Vietnam market. In 2025, a stable macro foundation combined with multiple converging catalysts is opening up prospects for a new IPO wave. From now until 2027, the Vietnam stock market is forecasted to become significantly more vibrant and diverse thanks to the IPO wave of a series of large enterprises. After a long period of quiet, IPO activity is forecasted to recover strongly, providing many high-quality options and strongly increasing the attractiveness as well as the depth of the Vietnam capital market.
• Vietnam stock market valuation is attractive compared to growth potential. In high-growth economic cycles, the stock market usually becomes more attractive because both corporate profit expectations and investor risk appetite improve, thereby pulling the market-wide P/E valuation higher. Current valuations of the Vietnam stock market are no longer cheap in the sense of a “deep discount,” but they remain in an attractive state from a medium-to-long-term perspective when compared with the profit growth potential of enterprises and Vietnam’s position in the region.

We forecast that the Vietnam stock market in 2026 will soon return to continue its growth cycle after overcoming a phase of strong accumulation and divergence; the VN-Index is forecasted to head towards trading in the range of 1,745 – 1,957 points thanks to the prospect of foreign capital flows returning positively after the upgrade. Earnings per share (EPS) are expected by us to grow in the range of 12%-18% compared to 2025 based on the following factors:

• The average 5-year EPS growth level on the HOSE is 16.5x
• Full-year 2025 projected EPS growth reaches over 22.x%
• 2026 GDP growth target of 10% or higher
• P/E valuation range selected between 15.5x – 16.5x (plus/minus 0.5 standard deviation compared to the 5-year average valuation).