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MARKET OUTLOOK 2ND HALF OF 2022

MARKET OUTLOOK 2ND HALF OF 2022

1 tháng trước ・ 30/06/2022

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Vietnam’s stock market has observed a strong adjustment of the index and a liquidity exhaustion in April and May. After falling more than 300 points from the peak at 1,528.57 points, VNIndex has return to 1,200 points, and this old important peak corresponds to the P/E ratio of 13.1 (10 years average –1 SD) – much smaller than the average in 10 years.

  • We expect that this growth will continue for the remaining of 2022 thanks to a solid macroeconomics with the main motivations come from export activities, domestic consumption, and government policies. 
  • Inflation continues to be the main risk to the Vietnamese economy. However, as a manufacturing and processing country in the global supply chain with the ability to self-produce most of the necessity goods, Vietnam will limit the need to import inflation from the world
  • Risks from the world market with concerns coming from The Geopolitical Implications of the Russian-Ukraine Crisis, the blockade order in China causing supply chain disruptions and the “ghost” of stagflation - a rare economic state as the combination of high inflation, high unemployment and low growth -  threatening the two main economic regions of the world, the US and the EU, the stock market will continue to plummet further.

INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS

We anticipate that investment opportunities in the second half of 2022 will come from businesses in defensive industries such as energy and consumption sectors that have characteristics such as necessity, low volatility relative to the economic cycle and unaffected significantly by the inflation

(1 ) Oil and Gas Industry: A sharp increase in oil prices presents an opportunity for oil and gas shares, particularly those in service, distribution, and oil and gas processing.

(2) Electricity: Electricity demand will rebound strongly following the reopening of the economy following the pandemic, assisting in increasing electricity consumption. Favorable hydrological conditions, particularly in 2022, will help many hydropower enterprises make a profit.

(3) Fertilizer industry: In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, demand for food storage and high fertilizer prices remains the short-term growth catalyst for fertilizer businesses.

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